Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.735160 14.587614 16.586213 18.899132 21.498308 24.325101 27.628297
2025-03-09 9.989752 12.490498 15.400721 19.022850 23.394206 28.482585 34.836121
2025-03-16 8.414958 11.137757 14.464855 18.802096 24.276247 30.922410 39.565201
2025-03-23 7.378825 10.273857 13.967465 18.981890 25.561566 33.844562 44.995792
2025-03-30 6.754803 9.822235 13.882462 19.586961 27.320041 37.352783 51.252011
2025-04-06 5.976280 9.058592 13.283924 19.415960 27.986620 39.422532 55.691431
2025-04-13 5.081653 8.024221 12.198920 18.451749 27.453401 39.792666 57.797044
2025-04-20 4.726232 7.730315 12.119490 18.872505 28.840226 42.816965 63.647236
2025-04-27 4.401314 7.444020 12.015258 19.228625 30.128044 45.737473 69.462823
2025-05-04 4.002573 6.999907 11.629590 19.120401 30.702822 47.637071 73.874122
2025-05-11 3.615249 6.533935 11.166225 18.846263 30.989270 49.100708 77.682767
2025-05-18 3.336026 6.218213 10.910135 18.867388 31.711111 51.222639 82.538293
2025-05-25 3.110383 5.978946 10.768013 19.074242 32.756531 53.919484 88.450225
2025-06-01 2.875505 5.701158 10.539245 19.120053 33.542289 56.249597 93.905781
2025-06-08 2.625254 5.369164 10.187421 18.925089 33.906844 57.911893 98.359286
2025-06-15 2.459152 5.176017 10.059093 19.096648 34.877401 60.568663 104.486709
2025-06-22 2.373622 5.127370 10.181539 19.708288 36.615996 64.534866 112.876059
2025-06-29 2.183774 4.856248 9.877174 19.535214 36.986895 66.257428 117.656893
2025-07-06 1.908484 4.385681 9.163767 18.566030 35.899726 65.481117 118.241972
2025-07-13 1.831108 4.314954 9.202955 18.988999 37.305931 68.976544 126.128551
2025-07-20 1.751292 4.231196 9.209372 19.347139 38.607411 72.338347 133.908512
2025-07-27 1.626075 4.036840 8.981616 19.238299 39.039615 74.197786 139.163151
2025-08-03 1.494335 3.814664 8.679970 18.962645 39.139868 75.466602 143.424559